Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
